On August 15, 2024, Chinas Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 33 of 2024, announcing export controls on antimony and related products. This move has drawn widespread attention, particularly from the U.S., which expressed concerns that Chinas export restrictions could impact its national security. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the U.S. stated in an articleChinas Antimony Export Control: Impact on US National Security (China’s Antimony Export Restrictions: The Impact on U.S. National SecurityTrade dispute settlement mechanismsThis article analyzes the potential impact of Chinas export control on the US antimony supply chain. The following is a detailed account of the background, impact, and countermeasures of this event.

On August 14, 2024, the Chinese government announced that it would impose export restrictions on six types of antimony - related products from September 15, including antimony ore, antimony metal, antimony oxide, and the smelting and separation technology of gold - antimony. Any individual or company wishing to export these materials must apply for a license from the Ministry of Commerce of China. In addition, the export of the smelting and separation technology of gold - antimony is prohibited without permission. Although the Ministry of Commerce of China stated that this move is to oppose activities that use products exported from China to harm Chinas sovereignty, security, and development interests, the statement did not clarify whether these restrictive measures are targeted at specific countries or regions.

Antimony is an important mineral resource in the US defense industry. It has long played a key role in the manufacture of tungsten steel, hardened lead bullets, armor - piercing bullets, night - vision goggles, infrared sensors, and precision optical instruments. With the continuous conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the increase in the US military equipment sales to foreign governments, the demand for antimony is also growing. In 2023, the US military equipment sales increased by 16% to reach $238 billion. Therefore, antimony is crucial to the US defense industrial base and national security.

However, the USs own antimony supply is highly dependent on imports, especially from China, accounting for 63% of the total imports. Since the closure of the Sunshine Mine in Idaho in 2001, the US has no longer mined antimony ore and can currently only meet about 18% of its demand through the recycling of lead - acid batteries.

China has approximately 32% of the worlds antimony reserves and is the worlds largest antimony producer, with its production accounting for about 48% of the global total. Russia has 17.5% of the global antimony reserves, and Bolivia, Kyrgyzstan, and Australia have 15.5%, 13%, and 7% of the reserves respectively. Although the USs domestic antimony reserves account for only 3% of the global total, its demand mainly relies on imports.

The mining and refining of antimony ore are concentrated in a few countries. Two foreign rivals, China and Russia, have 50% of the global antimony reserves. Although Tajikistan has relatively few antimony reserves, in 2023, it became the second - largest antimony producer after China, accounting for 25% of the global total production. However, due to the under - development of the antimony mining industry in other countries, much of the mined antimony resources still need to be sent to China for further refining.

With Chinas announcement of the export control of antimony, the price of antimony is expected to rise significantly. Since the beginning of 2024, the price of antimony has doubled to reach a record high of $22,000 per ton, and some experts predict that the price may further rise to $30,000 per ton. China has been reducing the proportion of antimony exports for years, and the new export restrictions are expected to exacerbate the market shortage of antimony.

Due to the tight supply and soaring price of antimony, there are currently no reliable alternative sources of antimony available in the market. Chinas export restrictions on gallium can provide a reference for predicting the export trend of antimony. After the implementation of the gallium export restrictions, the export volume of gallium experienced a period of fluctuations. Therefore, the US may need to diversify its antimony procurement channels to meet the needs of the defense industry.

Given that it will take at least several years for the US to start domestic antimony mining, the US cannot solve the current supply chain problem through its own production. Therefore, the US will have to rely on foreign partners to address the supply shortage problem.

Establish Cooperation with Tajikistan:
As the second - largest antimony producer, Tajikistan may play an important role in breaking the USs dependence on imports from China. In February this year, the US held the first C5 + 1 Critical Minerals Dialogue with five Central Asian countries, including Tajikistan, to explore closer cooperation in critical minerals. The Tajikistan government has also expressed its willingness to expand global partnerships, and US investors have invested over $300 million to expand the countrys antimony processing capacity.
Increase Investment in Australia:
The Hillgrove mine in Australia is the worlds tenth - largest antimony mine project. By increasing investment, the antimony production in non - Chinese regions can be increased. In addition, to prevent antimony ore from flowing back to China for refining, the US needs to invest in antimony refineries outside China to improve the independence of the supply chain.
Improve Domestic Recycling Technology:
The US should continue to invest in domestic new technologies, especially in improving recycling technology, to increase the amount of recyclable antimony in the country. This can not only reduce dependence on imports but also enhance the security of the countrys critical mineral supply chain.

In conclusion, with Chinas implementation of antimony export control, the US needs to quickly adopt a diversified procurement strategy, strengthen cooperation with global partners, and enhance its own mining and recycling capabilities of mineral resources to ensure the security of the antimony supply chain.